I like predictions. And I usually like Mashable. But two days ago the largest social media website in the world made its predictions for 2008. Talking about lame.
The most interesting preduction for 2008 was that some old media organizations would go out of business because “they’re just too big to make the transition to New Media adeptly, and almost all their efforts have been moves in the wrong direction.” But there were no specifics on this prediction. Only the prediction that it would involve “two major record labels.” Really? Geffen? EMI? Which ones exactly?
I don’t think we’ll lose any major record labels. Maybe a few indie ones, but those are the ones who are using new media successfully. The old record labels may not be using new media real well, but they’re still billion dollar corporations. Their old media ways haven’t failed them yet. There still hasn’t emerged any one dominant new media music producer. Can you name one? I can’t. And if you try to share your recordings with your friends online you’ll get sued and go by way of Napster. So I’m not sure where Mashable is coming from on this one.
That said, I have a few predictions of my own for 2008:
- Another recording artist will self-publish online to great success and beat all new media records
- Facebook and MySpace will continue to make news, but not in a good way
- Podcasting will finally come into its own
- A few Hollywood strikers will form an online media company and shoot the bird at their TV-world producers once and for all
- Mashable will continue to write great blog posts, but will occasionally write one that is just plain lame.
Let’s make 2008 the year of social media, shall we?
Ha, I’ll pass your sentiments on to Mark.
EMI and Warner,if I had to pick. They’re all in trouble, though.
Read the hyperlinked section of that part of the article. Radiohead netted twice as much money as the entire Warner label did last year.
Looking for a prominent Web 2.0 music seller? How about Wal-Mart. Heard of iTunes? What about Rhapsody or Yahoo on the second tier.
Any single one of those outsell most physical music sellers. If that’s not dominance, I’m not sure what is.
There are at least three prominent Facebook applications designed to allow you to share your library legally, as well. Furthermore, at least two major labels will be pulling financial support from the IFPI and the RIAA next year in an effort to stay profitable.
Things are changing, you just need to pay attention to the guideposts. Not paying attention to those guideposts is my definition of lame.
Mark, thanks for the feedback. I just read an article on the RIAA that put it all into perspective for me and I think you’re right. We may end up losing a couple of traditional music publishers in the next year or two. I knew online media publishers were outpacing traditional publishers, but what I didn’t know was that the situation was that bleak.